WEEKLY BIAS
Feb 9 - Feb 15, 2026
Market Overview
Global markets are navigating a complex landscape of geopolitical tension and shifting monetary policy expectations. Key focus remains on US economic data and central bank rhetoric.
USD
US Dollar
USD unter Druck trotz Warsh-Nominierung und ISM Manufacturing Rebound (52.6). Labor Market Schwäche (Job Openings 6.54M, Layoffs höchster Januar-Level seit 2009) hält Downside-Risiko lebendig. Credibility Bid um Fed-Leadership und Manufacturing-Überraschung stützen kurzfristig, aber strukturelle Unsicherheit bleibt.
Key Events
- TUEFOMC MinutesHIGH
- THUJobless ClaimsMEDIUM
- FRIRetail SalesCRITICAL
EUR
Euro
EUR under pressure from disinflation (Eurozone 1.7%, Core 2.2% below target) and dovish ECB signal despite Rate Hold at 2%. German Industrial Production -1.9% MoM highlights structural weakness. ECB warns against excessive EUR strength (disinflationary risk). China Dairy Tax Deal provides minimal support.
Key Events
- MONInvestor ConfidenceMEDIUM
- FRIFlash Employment ChangeHIGH
- FRIFlash GDPCRITICAL
GBP
British Pound
GBP volatile after BoE dovish surprise (5-4 split for Rate Hold at 3.75%, 4 members voted for cut to 3.5%). Governor Bailey expects 'quite sharp' inflation drop, markets price April cut. Political crisis (Starmer Leadership Challenge over Mandelson appointment) adds risk premium. Manufacturing PMI 51.8 and resilient housing data offset by policy shift.
Key Events
- THUGDPCRITICAL
JPY
Japanese Yen
JPY weakest G10 currency as election-related messaging (PM Takaichi favors weak JPY for exporters) and wide yield differentials drive carry trades. BoJ remains patient (April hike possible but not certain), Tokyo Inflation soft. USD/JPY tests 157, GBP/JPY highest since 2008. Lower House Elections Sunday critical for policy path.
Key Events
- SUNLower House ElectionsCRITICAL
- WEDPPIMEDIUM
AUD
Australian Dollar
AUD supported by RBA hawkish surprise (Rate Hike to 3.85%, further hikes possible if wages/inflation persist) and global risk-on rally (Dow 50k). US Critical Minerals Stockpile Initiative boosts terms of trade. Copper volatility and China growth concerns remain, but domestic rates impulse dominates. High-beta cyclical benefits from equity strength.
Key Events
- MONWestpac Consumer SentimentMEDIUM
- THUInflation ExpectationsHIGH
CAD
Canadian Dollar
CAD resilient but vulnerable to trade risks (Trump warns of 'substantial response' if Canada proceeds with China deal). Jobs Report mixed (-25k headline, but +45k Full-Time, Unemployment 6.5%), Manufacturing PMI expansion. BoC Macklem warns against too-rapid cuts. Oil volatility (61-63.55) provides limited support. USD/CAD 1.36-1.37 range.
Key Events
- WEDBOC Summary Of DeliberationsHIGH
CHF
Swiss Franc
CHF as fear gauge: Mid-week safe haven bid (Tech sell-off, Iran-US geopolitical tensions) quickly faded as Friday risk-on rally (Dow 50k) drove capital rotation. SNB Schlegel emphasizes intervention readiness against CHF strength, negative rates only as high-bar tool. Carry disadvantage dominates when risk sentiment stable. EUR/CHF stable, USD/CHF higher.
Key Events
- MONConsumer ClimateMEDIUM
- FRICPIHIGH
NZD
New Zealand Dollar
NZD high-beta cyclical benefits from global risk-on rally (Friday equity surge to 0.6027). Choppy week (China-related growth nerves, tech wobble mid-week) before Friday recovery. Dairy trade tensions cooling provides support. Hotter inflation reduces RBNZ easing confidence, keeping front-end supported. China/Australia linkage remains critical for exports.
Key Events
- FRIInflation ExpectationsHIGH