DAILY RECAP
Wednesday, April 8, 2026
Market Overview
US-Iran 2-week ceasefire announced at ~05:00 FFT — Trump suspended bombing subject to Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent slipped below $95/bbl (from $116/bbl). SPX futures +2.7%, NDX +3.5%. DXY -0.7%. Bonds soaring with a clear curve steepening bias. Trump: 'A big day for World Peace!' However, ceasefire is fragile — explosions reported at Iran's Siri and Lavan islands, Iran Navy still requiring Hormuz permission, Kuwait/UAE still being attacked. Formal talks begin in Islamabad on Friday. • RBNZ held at 2.25% as expected but Governor Breman delivered a hawkish surprise: 'We discussed raising rates at today's meeting and at the May meeting. Frequency of rate hikes could be every meeting or every second meeting.' ASB Bank now sees RBNZ hiking September AND December. NZD is the clear session outperformer. RBNZ stagflation framework: near-term inflation expected to increase while economic recovery weakens — but the rate hike discussion is the dominant driver for NZD. • Key events today: FOMC Minutes at 19:00 FFT (March confab — rates left at 3.50-3.75%, no change to forward guidance). US 10yr Note Auction. Fed Daly and Waller speak. CHF Unemployment Rate 08:00 FFT BEAT (3.1% vs 3.2% exp). EU Retail Sales in line (-0.2% MoM). German Factory Orders missed (0.9% vs 2.0% exp). UK Halifax HPI missed (-0.5% MoM vs +0.1% exp). EUR/GBP fell below 0.87 and 200 DMA.
Market Focus
- ›US-Iran 2-week ceasefire announced at ~05:00 FFT — Trump suspended bombing subject to Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent slipped below $95/bbl (from $116/bbl). SPX futures +2.7%, NDX +3.5%. DXY -0.7%. Bonds soaring with a clear curve steepening bias. Trump: 'A big day for World Peace!' However, ceasefire is fragile — explosions reported at Iran's Siri and Lavan islands, Iran Navy still requiring Hormuz permission, Kuwait/UAE still being attacked. Formal talks begin in Islamabad on Friday.
- ›RBNZ held at 2.25% as expected but Governor Breman delivered a hawkish surprise: 'We discussed raising rates at today's meeting and at the May meeting. Frequency of rate hikes could be every meeting or every second meeting.' ASB Bank now sees RBNZ hiking September AND December. NZD is the clear session outperformer. RBNZ stagflation framework: near-term inflation expected to increase while economic recovery weakens — but the rate hike discussion is the dominant driver for NZD.
- ›Key events today: FOMC Minutes at 19:00 FFT (March confab — rates left at 3.50-3.75%, no change to forward guidance). US 10yr Note Auction. Fed Daly and Waller speak. CHF Unemployment Rate 08:00 FFT BEAT (3.1% vs 3.2% exp). EU Retail Sales in line (-0.2% MoM). German Factory Orders missed (0.9% vs 2.0% exp). UK Halifax HPI missed (-0.5% MoM vs +0.1% exp). EUR/GBP fell below 0.87 and 200 DMA.
Risk Environment
Risk-On Recovery: US-Iran 2-week ceasefire announced at ~05:00 FFT — Trump suspended bombing subject to Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent slipped below $95/bbl (from $116/bbl). SPX futures +2.7%, NDX +3.5%. DXY -0.7%. Bonds soaring with a clear curve steepening bias. Trump: 'A big day for World Peace!' However, ceasefire is fragile — explosions reported at Iran's Siri and Lavan islands, Iran Navy still requiring Hormuz permission, Kuwait/UAE still being attacked. Formal talks begin in Islamabad on Friday.
Swing Setups
Based on Weekly & Daily Bias Alignment
Intraday Trades (Base Hits)
Close Pos. Before
RBNZ Rate Decision + Statement
RBNZ Press Conference
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Red Folder News
RBNZ Rate Decision + Statement
RBNZ Press Conference
Unemployment Rate
Retail Sales m/m
FOMC Meeting Minutes
USD
US Dollar
USD is Bearish today. DXY fell -0.7% as the US-Iran ceasefire removed the primary driver of USD haven demand — the energy shock. Oil below $95/bbl reduces the stagflation premium that had been supporting the dollar. Fed Jefferson delivered a dovish tone: 'sees downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation, cautious on outlook, uncertainty elevated.' The FOMC Minutes at 19:00 FFT (March meeting — rates held at 3.50-3.75%) could partially restore USD if they reveal hawkish internal debate, but the near-term bias is bearish as risk-on unwinds USD longs. Weekly Strong Bullish + Daily Bearish = NO alignment (mismatch).
EUR
Euro
EUR is Neutral today. EUR/USD rallied on broad risk-on but lacks directional conviction. ECB hawkish repricing was pared back sharply — only 2bps of hikes priced for April (vs 12bps pre-ceasefire). Markets still price 45bps by year-end. ECB Dolenc: 'if the Iran war drags on, it will be very bad for inflation and growth' — the ceasefire reduces the ECB's urgency to hike. German Factory Orders missed (0.9% vs 2.0% exp). EU Retail Sales in line. German Bund supply (EUR 3.8bln sold vs EUR 5.0bln target — poor demand) weighs. EUR/GBP fell below 0.87 and 200 DMA. Weekly Neutral + Daily Neutral = NO alignment.
GBP
British Pound
GBP is Bullish today. Cable rallied +1% to 1.3440 as the ceasefire and crude slump provide direct relief for the UK — a major energy importer. Lower oil prices reduce the stagflation pressure that has been the primary headwind for GBP. EUR/GBP fell below 0.87 and the 200 DMA (next target: 50 DMA at 0.8687). BOE still has ~30bps of hiking priced (a pullback of the same magnitude since Tuesday's close). UK Halifax HPI missed (-0.5% MoM vs +0.1% exp) — a headwind but overwhelmed by the energy relief narrative. Cable rally stalled just above 1.3440 — watch for resistance. Weekly Neutral + Daily Bullish = NO alignment.
JPY
Japanese Yen
JPY is Bullish today. USD/JPY fell sharply as the ceasefire delivered a double positive for JPY: (1) lower oil prices reduce Japan's energy import bill — a structural positive for the current account; (2) global bonds soaring means US-Japan yield differentials are narrowing, reducing the carry trade pressure on JPY. Fed Jefferson's dovish tone adds to the yield differential compression. BOJ hawkish backdrop intact. Weekly Weak Bullish + Daily Bullish = HIGH CONVICTION ✅.
AUD
Australian Dollar
AUD is Bullish today. AUD/USD rallied alongside the broad risk-on move. Copper hit a 3-week high and aluminium advanced as easing concerns over global growth lifted commodity sentiment. Gold surged above $4,850/oz. China was given additional crude import quotas to maintain fuel production — a positive for the China growth narrative which supports AUD. Precious metals surge is an additional AUD positive. Weekly Bearish + Daily Bullish = NO alignment (mismatch).
CAD
Canadian Dollar
CAD is Neutral today. Brent fell below $95/bbl — CAD loses its primary driver as a net oil exporter. The oil slump is structurally negative for CAD via the terms of trade channel. However, broad risk-on sentiment partially offsets this as CAD is also a risk-correlated currency. The net result is Neutral. Canada Services PMI was already in contraction (47.2) — domestic weakness remains. Ivey PMI yesterday was the key catalyst. Weekly Weak Bullish + Daily Neutral = NO alignment.
CHF
Swiss Franc
CHF is Bearish today. Haven flows are reversing as the ceasefire removes the geopolitical risk premium. CHF Unemployment Rate beat (3.1% vs 3.2% exp) — a minor positive but overwhelmed by the risk-on reversal. SNB intervention cap limits CHF appreciation. USD/CHF is stabilizing as USD weakens but CHF also loses haven demand. EUR/CHF is rangebound. Weekly Weak Bearish + Daily Bearish = HIGH CONVICTION ✅.
NZD
New Zealand Dollar
NZD is Bullish today — the clear session outperformer. RBNZ held at 2.25% as expected but Governor Breman delivered a hawkish surprise: discussed raising rates at today's meeting AND the May meeting. 'Frequency of rate hikes could be every meeting or every second meeting.' ASB Bank now sees RBNZ hiking September AND December. NZD/USD surged. The ceasefire risk-on adds additional fuel. Weekly Bearish + Daily Bullish = NO alignment (mismatch) — no swing setup, but strong intraday momentum.